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it is the fiscal cliff. if we go over that, if all the tax cuts expire, if we have the sequester, if we don't extend payroll tax relief and unemployment benefits, we will end up at the end of 2013 with about over 3 million fewer jobs than we would have had otherwise. just imagine that. the fiscal cliff is going cost the economy in that order of magnitude, 3 million jobs. we should not, not, not go over that cliff. now -- >> by the same token, though, his point about -- and i don't want to make this about ed. the fact remains that the debt levels we have in this country in effect put a cap on growth right now. >> sure, sure, sure. i think that economists have been saying for years -- i have said repeatedly, economists on both sides of the aisle have said repeatedly what we need is a long-term plan for deficit reduction that begins to take effect when the economy is closer to its capacity. right now it's at least 6% below its capacity. the unemployment rate, 7.7, it should be like 5.7 at capacity. we should no
it is the fiscal cliff. if we go over that, if all the tax cuts expire, if we have the sequester, if we don't extend payroll tax relief and unemployment benefits, we will end up at the end of 2013 with about over 3 million fewer jobs than we would have had otherwise. just imagine that. the fiscal cliff is going cost the economy in that order of magnitude, 3 million jobs. we should not, not, not go over that cliff. now -- >> by the same token, though, his point about -- and i don't want to...
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Dec 5, 2012
12/12
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the soap opera we call the fiscal cliff. before we get to our chief washington john harwood and the president is meeting with another grouch ceos, i need to start with eamon javers on capitol hill where lawmakers are skipping down early for a long weekend. eamon, wasn't thanksgiving just a couple weeks ago? >> it was. let me check michael ichaey cal. you see rank and file members of congress leaving the capitol. they are done for the week. they're headed back loam to their hometown districts. a lot of folks focused on this negotiation right now but the reality is that the negotiations are taking place among just a very few, very high level people. i was talking to a few rank and file members yesterday who said they were frustrated there is not a whole lot for them to do, they are just sitting around here waiting for some break-through in these negotiations. they want something to do on the floor, in their offices and there is not much for them to sink their teeth into. now they're going into their district. leadership is goi
the soap opera we call the fiscal cliff. before we get to our chief washington john harwood and the president is meeting with another grouch ceos, i need to start with eamon javers on capitol hill where lawmakers are skipping down early for a long weekend. eamon, wasn't thanksgiving just a couple weeks ago? >> it was. let me check michael ichaey cal. you see rank and file members of congress leaving the capitol. they are done for the week. they're headed back loam to their hometown...
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Dec 6, 2012
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the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically week and counting before you think the equity market really drops significantly? >> if we do get a deal done do, we just maintain the 2% that we're stuck in with the high unemployment and not go down? or does it actually allow us to start growing again? is anybody talking growth? >> we're talking growth. >> is it possible to ever get back to that in this environment? >> it is. you have a lot of problems with the piece. >> do you briyou believe if you rote deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you
the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically...
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Dec 7, 2012
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. >> legislators say they need to see how fiscal cliff negotiations develop before making any budget plans. between 50,000 to 90,000 jobs could be lost if across-the- board spending cuts and tax increases are not averted. mike miller says that it will help determine what major finance initiatives will need to be considered for the state's upcoming legislation. president barack obama says approach in the fiscal cliff will add to holiday stress for american families. >> the closer it gets to the brink, the more stressed they will be. businesses are making decisions right now about investment and hiring. they don't have confidence that we can get this thing done, they will start pulling back and we could have a lousy time in our haqqani for the next several months. >> the president made the remarks while visiting with the virginia family to talk about the budget crisis. >> for now, the stalled negotiations cannot seem to be affecting local holiday shopping and events in and around baltimore. >> harbour east is one of the air is a special -- with special events going on throughout the ci
. >> legislators say they need to see how fiscal cliff negotiations develop before making any budget plans. between 50,000 to 90,000 jobs could be lost if across-the- board spending cuts and tax increases are not averted. mike miller says that it will help determine what major finance initiatives will need to be considered for the state's upcoming legislation. president barack obama says approach in the fiscal cliff will add to holiday stress for american families. >> the closer it...
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the fiscal cliff talks not going anywhere yet. during the next two weeks we will start to see some positive remarks. one thing that is very interesting, heat and oil settled in a very weak position. those two coming off could take the energy complex down much further. right now only 85 to 85.10. cheryl: we have plenty of supply out there right now. we are in the middle of winter. >> we have a tremendous amount of supply. we do not have much cold weather coming up near term. once the fiscal cliff starts getting resolved, you will see some buying going on. cheryl: bobby, i want to go back to you about europe. we have not had a lot of problees. seems like the greeks are kind to getting things. >> the last few days, europe markets have been pretty strong. as you said, a sleeping giant. cheryl: i do not want to see anything change. it has been nice. gentlemen, thank you. i appreciate it. great floor show today. uncertainty seems to be the norm in washington these days. last year you have the debt ceiling convey. congress had trouble pu
the fiscal cliff talks not going anywhere yet. during the next two weeks we will start to see some positive remarks. one thing that is very interesting, heat and oil settled in a very weak position. those two coming off could take the energy complex down much further. right now only 85 to 85.10. cheryl: we have plenty of supply out there right now. we are in the middle of winter. >> we have a tremendous amount of supply. we do not have much cold weather coming up near term. once the...
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Dec 2, 2012
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i'm not sure that this fiscal cliff really is a fiscal cliff. i think that it changes the baseline. republicans get better negotiating position on the other side when they are not scared to death of their own shadow and fearful of not looking reasonable. to think that the same joker who is got us this compromise will somehow get us a better compromise is absolutely silly. some of these guys have been voted out by the american public. maybe we should wait until the new people who have been through this before and just through the campaign, when they come in and change, i just have a hard time believing this congress, the one that got us into the mess we are dealing with, will somehow field a way to get out of it. >> i understand what you're saying about waiting for the new people to come in, but many of the new people coming in and many of the old people still there are not economists, they are not experts on the economy. they are not experts on the fiscal cliff. if you speak to those who know, they will tell you it is a bad thing to go over that cliff. and still you're saying maybe
i'm not sure that this fiscal cliff really is a fiscal cliff. i think that it changes the baseline. republicans get better negotiating position on the other side when they are not scared to death of their own shadow and fearful of not looking reasonable. to think that the same joker who is got us this compromise will somehow get us a better compromise is absolutely silly. some of these guys have been voted out by the american public. maybe we should wait until the new people who have been...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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how tumbling over the fiscal cliff could affect the housing recovery. in today's cover story, coffee bean prices are dramaticly lower. why the price of some cups of joe remains the same. plus, a breakdown of the recent jobs data. what sector is still struggling? what you can expect to pay at the gas pump this holiday season. and, this year's literary sensation made for a very merry christmas for workers at a publishing house. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's monday, december 10th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: traders are watching for a santa claus rally, but it's not happening for tech yet. on friday the dow finished off a 3-session winning streak, but the nasdaq lost more ground as apple continues to sink tech stocks. gold rallied above $1,700 an ounce, while oil pulled back. aig reports its losses from damage and destruction caused by superstorm sandy will be $1.3 billion. it's green monday. the second monday in december is considered a cri
how tumbling over the fiscal cliff could affect the housing recovery. in today's cover story, coffee bean prices are dramaticly lower. why the price of some cups of joe remains the same. plus, a breakdown of the recent jobs data. what sector is still struggling? what you can expect to pay at the gas pump this holiday season. and, this year's literary sensation made for a very merry christmas for workers at a publishing house. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial...
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Dec 5, 2012
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>> i contends the fiscal cliff will come to an agreement. it will be temporary in nature, kind of a year type of plan. i think the market has digested a bit that tax rates will go up. it's just a matter of how much spending are we going to cut to make this a market between the democrats and republicans. >> does monetary policy hurt or help the banks? keeping rates as low as they are, it's tough to make a buck the traditional way of lending and spending, right? >> i'm going to be a two-armed economist because i can't said on the other hand. there's two things that are very important. first of all, credit in commercial real estate is phenomenal. cap rates are really low. so the fact that rates are as low as they are has allowed commercial real estate not to fall into the abyss. if commercial real estate had to refi at high rates, we would have had another problem. the other problem is the fact margins are getting squeezed at these banks. credit quality is better. >> that's where the money comes from. >> yeah, fees. by the way, you can eat thes
>> i contends the fiscal cliff will come to an agreement. it will be temporary in nature, kind of a year type of plan. i think the market has digested a bit that tax rates will go up. it's just a matter of how much spending are we going to cut to make this a market between the democrats and republicans. >> does monetary policy hurt or help the banks? keeping rates as low as they are, it's tough to make a buck the traditional way of lending and spending, right? >> i'm going to...
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Dec 7, 2012
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it's coming under pressure as part of a broader fiscal cliff deal. there's an article on the front page of today's "wall street journal" that highlights other ways people are trying to take advantage of the certainty over the final few weeks of 2012. some of the examples they cite are people said to be accelerating large medical expenses for this year and selling appreciated stock in some cases even prepaying their mortgages so they can make sure they get the mortgage interest deduction. and, bob, you think -- for a lot of people that won't matter? >> you have the amt. so if you take excessive deductions, they just disappear. which is one of the things about all of this about limiting these deductions which is kind of silly because the amt does it in the aggregate. and of course the amt is grabbing more and more people and it's one of the things they want to reform, but if they reform it, they have to raise taxes someplace else. so it's confusing. >> but that's the worst part of it, a simpler tax code that someone could actually understand and now ho
it's coming under pressure as part of a broader fiscal cliff deal. there's an article on the front page of today's "wall street journal" that highlights other ways people are trying to take advantage of the certainty over the final few weeks of 2012. some of the examples they cite are people said to be accelerating large medical expenses for this year and selling appreciated stock in some cases even prepaying their mortgages so they can make sure they get the mortgage interest...
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fiscal cliff, obviously dominant on the scene. no major events, as i see them scheduled those there will be some of the joint committee in congress on thursday, talks about some of the outcomes, should we go over fiscal cliff. and then looking beyond that, really, it's really about the euro zone and keep an eye out. we have meetings going on wednesday, thursday, friday. >> got it. chad, what about you? >> bill and mandy, three things to watch for tomorrow. as your previous guest said, wholesale inventory number. you have to watch that, if you start to see a long-term trend where the companies are building inventories, that's something more ominous to the economy. the small business index coming out tomorrow. that, of course, should show a gradual increase in its pace. and the federal reserve is starting their meetings tomorrow, so, for wednesday, we're expecting an additional $40 billion every month of additional treasury purchases to take place on the operation twist. >> jennifer, 30 seconds. what do you see tomorrow? >> yeah, we
fiscal cliff, obviously dominant on the scene. no major events, as i see them scheduled those there will be some of the joint committee in congress on thursday, talks about some of the outcomes, should we go over fiscal cliff. and then looking beyond that, really, it's really about the euro zone and keep an eye out. we have meetings going on wednesday, thursday, friday. >> got it. chad, what about you? >> bill and mandy, three things to watch for tomorrow. as your previous guest...
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Dec 7, 2012
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i think this is all fiscal cliff and tax related selling here. i don't think it's core, that rumor that because they moved up margins -- >> what do you do? your brother says stay away. >> i think he's right. you don't add to it until the final weeks of december. >> he didn't say stay away. >> did he say buy it? >> he said own it. >> if he thinks it's going up. >> if he loves it so much, why don't you buy more here? absolutely. on november 16th the stock rallied, took a little bit off, and i still believe on a tact tactical basis that's the right move, at least for me. longer-term time frame it is generational. it looks most like a bond. it's a bond-friendly type of asset. that's why i want to own it. now, john and pete are talking about what potentially could turn it. you have to look forward into the earnings season and understand the potential for the number of iphones to be sold to hit 50 million. now, the reason that it was down 9 of 11 weeks, why did that begin? it began on the conversation of iphone five constraints. you wanted to order an
i think this is all fiscal cliff and tax related selling here. i don't think it's core, that rumor that because they moved up margins -- >> what do you do? your brother says stay away. >> i think he's right. you don't add to it until the final weeks of december. >> he didn't say stay away. >> did he say buy it? >> he said own it. >> if he thinks it's going up. >> if he loves it so much, why don't you buy more here? absolutely. on november 16th the stock...
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Dec 6, 2012
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fiscal cliff and all of the other stuff. great story on the front page of wall street journal today talking about portfolio pumping. another example of investors thinking they're not getting a fair shake out of the stock market. >> larry, you call that complacency, don't you? >> that's right. i'm actually shocked that these investors appear to be asleep at the switch in light of the fiscal fiasco looming in less than a month. you would think investors saying their concerns would be running for the hills or at least buying portfolio protection to protect themselves against potential disaster. we see the vix very low. they're not taking the type of defensive, decisive action. if we get a downgrade and if this happens, it will be terrible for the market. that's what's potentially on the market, if we don't make a deal in washington. >> scott, let me ask you again how you want to allocate capital then in that environment. i know george young is with us again, joining the conversation. i want to ask you the same question. go ahea
fiscal cliff and all of the other stuff. great story on the front page of wall street journal today talking about portfolio pumping. another example of investors thinking they're not getting a fair shake out of the stock market. >> larry, you call that complacency, don't you? >> that's right. i'm actually shocked that these investors appear to be asleep at the switch in light of the fiscal fiasco looming in less than a month. you would think investors saying their concerns would be...
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Dec 6, 2012
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but everybody's worried about retail and fiscal cliff, carl and fiscal cliff was mentioned in the release. it's become something carl that we are expecting in every release that we see. >> we do have a couple of seconds to point out that last night in cable fax awards, two nights ago, you were named to the hall of fame. >> yes, thank you very much. kind of proud, i dedicated by admission to mark haines who put me on tv. when david and joe would do "squawk box," he put me on tv. and mark was inducted into the hall of fame last year, because he said there's room for like guys that were bald and fat. right then i was trading at 2.15. now it's a point lower. >> no free passes. >> well deserved, congratulationings from all of us. you're going to stick arounder for lululemon. >> speaking of which, coming up, the ceo of lululemon will talk to us about the holiday season. and apple, a slide back into u.s. territory. [ male announcer ] when a major hospital wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby a
but everybody's worried about retail and fiscal cliff, carl and fiscal cliff was mentioned in the release. it's become something carl that we are expecting in every release that we see. >> we do have a couple of seconds to point out that last night in cable fax awards, two nights ago, you were named to the hall of fame. >> yes, thank you very much. kind of proud, i dedicated by admission to mark haines who put me on tv. when david and joe would do "squawk box," he put me...
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Dec 4, 2012
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to blame republicans and just 27% the president if they don't agree on a fiscal cliff. we know that after the election, 60% of people said let's raise taxes on the wealthiest. what more does john boehner need? >> i don't understand the republicans' thinking on this. i really don't. this is power politics. they don't have the leverage in this situation. if they don't cut a deal within the next 30 days, you're going to see tax rates rise on all americans. you're going to see huge cuts in the defense budget. we're probably going to have a double dip recession, and until the congress then gets its act together to fix it and lower rates on the middle class, you will have the republicans essentially responsible for raising tax rates on the middle class. i can't imagine, again, bill krystal said this yesterday. i can't imagine why the republicans would want to be known as raising tacks xes on t middle class. >> thank you both. next, the president reacts to speaker boehner. stay with us. this is sheldon, whose long dy setting up the news starts with arthritis pain and a choice.
to blame republicans and just 27% the president if they don't agree on a fiscal cliff. we know that after the election, 60% of people said let's raise taxes on the wealthiest. what more does john boehner need? >> i don't understand the republicans' thinking on this. i really don't. this is power politics. they don't have the leverage in this situation. if they don't cut a deal within the next 30 days, you're going to see tax rates rise on all americans. you're going to see huge cuts in...
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>> the biggest risk is fiscal cliff. it is a weak fourth quarter. we could have a much better year if we choose to avert the fiscal cliff and move toward credible deficit reduction. if we don't, i think that's the real critical bet is will we get there or not? >> good to see you both. have a great weekend. thank you very much. >>> simon mentioned we're going to get exclusive reaction to today's job report from goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius straight ahead. >> who better to sit down and talk with than whirlpool. >> announcer: the number is out. >> november nonfarm payrolls increased by 146,000 jobs. >> announcer: were you able to nail the number? if so, you may be the winner of this picture frame signed by the "squawk on the street" gang. find out if it was you later on "squawk on the street." if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build
>> the biggest risk is fiscal cliff. it is a weak fourth quarter. we could have a much better year if we choose to avert the fiscal cliff and move toward credible deficit reduction. if we don't, i think that's the real critical bet is will we get there or not? >> good to see you both. have a great weekend. thank you very much. >>> simon mentioned we're going to get exclusive reaction to today's job report from goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius straight ahead....
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Dec 4, 2012
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to be at an icy impasse over the so-called fiscal cliff. this is hours after the white house rejected the counteroffer. >> while their proposal may be serious, it's also a nonstarter. they know any agreement that raise tax on the middle class in order to protect more unnecessary giveaways, the top 2% s. doomed from the start. it won't pass. democrats won't agree to it. president obama wouldn't sign such a bill and the american people won't support it. >> you don't get people together until they finally sit down at the table and negotiate. it's still too much posturing, still too much the president wants his way, somebody else wants it that way. >> the gop's opening bid includes $2.2 trillion in tax reform, entitlement reform. but here's the problem, it includes no tax hike for the top 2% that republicans must have and something that the president repeated on the campaign trail. >> the obstacle here continues to be republicans who hold out hope that we can somehow go through this process and still deliver tax cuts to millionaire and billiona
to be at an icy impasse over the so-called fiscal cliff. this is hours after the white house rejected the counteroffer. >> while their proposal may be serious, it's also a nonstarter. they know any agreement that raise tax on the middle class in order to protect more unnecessary giveaways, the top 2% s. doomed from the start. it won't pass. democrats won't agree to it. president obama wouldn't sign such a bill and the american people won't support it. >> you don't get people...
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Dec 4, 2012
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do not cooperate with the fiscal cliff idea. rebel and say just extend everything and come back later when the economy is at full -- >> how do you rebel against the fiscal cliff idea? paul, if you listen to boehner and his plan, he sort of says it's erskine bowles plan. is it possible to rebel against an idea marching along? >> i get excited when i hear david say things so far outside the bok. it's not a box. it's a beltway here. there is a long-term crisis and i think david would agree with that. if you actually go back and read what my old boss and his partner wrote almost two years ago now, they said these things, these cuts in tax increases should be back loaded so we don't damage the economy. in the president's proposal, he does have a small infrastructure bank program to try to jump-start some growth, so i think it's a good idea. raising tax rates on the rich. i saw your interview with senator coburn. he has really put in the time here and i admired his work on this. but even a guy like senator coburn who was on the commis
do not cooperate with the fiscal cliff idea. rebel and say just extend everything and come back later when the economy is at full -- >> how do you rebel against the fiscal cliff idea? paul, if you listen to boehner and his plan, he sort of says it's erskine bowles plan. is it possible to rebel against an idea marching along? >> i get excited when i hear david say things so far outside the bok. it's not a box. it's a beltway here. there is a long-term crisis and i think david would...
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Dec 10, 2012
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the reason, well, the fiscal cliff. the current rate is 35%. only those estates worth 5 million or more have to file. if we go off the cliff the rate shoots up to 55%. anyone worth an estate worth $1 million or more has it file. that will catch tens of thousands of tax payers in the net of the estate tax. republicans want it abolished or current rates to be made permanent. obama wants 45% rate and 3.5 million cut off. that mid way between today's rates and old rate. the problem is that even some democrats are siding with republicans saying they want it keep current rates. all the sides here tyler remain very far apart. wealthy families need 20 rewrite their wills and charity plans. for the country, there are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake. under old rates, they raise $532 billion by 2021. obama plan raised around $270 billion, about half. gop raises about $161 billion. the fight over taxing the rich, especially in the estate tax, is far from over. back to you, tyler. >> not the first time the estate tax has come up in these kinds of n
the reason, well, the fiscal cliff. the current rate is 35%. only those estates worth 5 million or more have to file. if we go off the cliff the rate shoots up to 55%. anyone worth an estate worth $1 million or more has it file. that will catch tens of thousands of tax payers in the net of the estate tax. republicans want it abolished or current rates to be made permanent. obama wants 45% rate and 3.5 million cut off. that mid way between today's rates and old rate. the problem is that even...
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Dec 10, 2012
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the fiscal cliff dominated the sunday talk shows. senator dick durbin on "meet the press" yesterday saying no deal on the debt without a tax hike on the wealthy. >> i can tell you i don't want to do it, the president doesn't want to do it but we need to solve the problem. we cannot allow their reckless position to drive this economy into another recession. >> and senator bob corker argues it might be better to agree with what the president wants to do now on taxes, and then fight later on spending. >> if we were to pass, for instance, raising the top two rates and that's it, all of a sudden we do have the leverage of the debt ceiling and we haven't given that up. >> joining us now house majority whip kevin mccarthy. not everybody, i don't know, depends on where you're sitting i guess, congressman, "the wall street journal" says republicans shouldn't be negotiating with themselves. they ought to be talking to spoorker boehner. is it helpful? >> is it helpful what the others are saying? look, is raising the rates going to solve the pro
the fiscal cliff dominated the sunday talk shows. senator dick durbin on "meet the press" yesterday saying no deal on the debt without a tax hike on the wealthy. >> i can tell you i don't want to do it, the president doesn't want to do it but we need to solve the problem. we cannot allow their reckless position to drive this economy into another recession. >> and senator bob corker argues it might be better to agree with what the president wants to do now on taxes, and...
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who do you trust to handle the fiscal cliff? 48% believe president obama and republicans will reach an agreement but 43% say they won't. meantime, president obama is giving a stern warning to republicans who may be trying to use the debt ceiling as leverage. >> if congress in any way suggests that they're going to tie negotiations to debt ceiling votes and take us to the brink of default once again as part of a budget negotiation, which by the way we have never done in our history until we did it last year, i will not play that game. >> we should say that the president and house speaker john boehner did speak by phone yesterday. that was the first time in a week. no one is saying what the conversation was about. shortly after that call treasury secretary tim geithner went on cnbc and said the white house is ready to go off the cliff. >> if republicans do not agree to that, is the administration prepared to go over the fiscal cliff in. >> absolutely. there's no prospect to an agreement that doesn't involve those rates going up on
who do you trust to handle the fiscal cliff? 48% believe president obama and republicans will reach an agreement but 43% say they won't. meantime, president obama is giving a stern warning to republicans who may be trying to use the debt ceiling as leverage. >> if congress in any way suggests that they're going to tie negotiations to debt ceiling votes and take us to the brink of default once again as part of a budget negotiation, which by the way we have never done in our history until...
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back to the looming fiscal cliff. a deal to avoid the cliff remains uncertain as both sides continue to fight over tax code overhaul. we're joined at post 9 by virginia democratic senator gang of eight member senator mark warner. welcome. down to nyse. good to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> we read about dinners at your house. senators trying to work something out on the side. clearly it collides with headlines we got over the weekend. >> we all know what the frame of this deal has to be. you have to get additional revenues. you have to find a way to reform the entitlements and make additional cuts and get a net net of minimum of 4 trillion over ten years. that sounds like a big number but when you think about the size of our economy and size of government spending over a ten-year period, this is so much remarkably smaller than what's being asked of people throughout europe and people in the u.k. and throughout the world. my hope is we are going to get the deal done. >> we have three weeks or so to play with at
back to the looming fiscal cliff. a deal to avoid the cliff remains uncertain as both sides continue to fight over tax code overhaul. we're joined at post 9 by virginia democratic senator gang of eight member senator mark warner. welcome. down to nyse. good to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> we read about dinners at your house. senators trying to work something out on the side. clearly it collides with headlines we got over the weekend. >> we all know what the frame of...
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Dec 8, 2012
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. >> i think the fiscal cliff ultimately will be rendered into a fiscal slow. between now and then the uncertainty is paralyzing ceo companies from big to small. you can see in the core capital goods orders which have basically fallen off in the last two quarters indicative of holding that business investment and hiring back which we think will change once we have some certainty brought into that equation. >> tom: finally housing which has shown remarkable stability in several markets but there's talk about limiting mortgage deductions with the fiscal cliff negotiations sometime next year. couldn't that impact the recovery? >> it could. obviously it might be relegated to more affluent households in terms on of the ability to do a deduction either in full or part. tend of the day there's a large household informq.rjz that's occur that's going to drive perspective homeowners into the market regardless. >> tom: let's get to the pic3sb here. you do like housing stocks with the home builders etf. what do you anticipate. they've had a nice run already. >> they've bee
. >> i think the fiscal cliff ultimately will be rendered into a fiscal slow. between now and then the uncertainty is paralyzing ceo companies from big to small. you can see in the core capital goods orders which have basically fallen off in the last two quarters indicative of holding that business investment and hiring back which we think will change once we have some certainty brought into that equation. >> tom: finally housing which has shown remarkable stability in several...
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we do not want to go off the fiscal cliff. that's why we quickly responded to another proposal to the president. but the president refused to have a discussion. >> there's other reports that say republicans are looking for a fallback position, if he can't get the capps on deductions for more tax revenues and so forth. and it's going to be tax rates that the republicans might just vote present. some might vote present. some might vote aye and deal with the rates next year is. that just pure press speculation or is there anything to it? >> look, those are all press stories that are out there. we're trying to solve a problem. because if that came to fruition, that does nothing to solve the problem. and we just have an unbelievable amount of growth in government where we have to control the spending. if we want to truly save medicare and social security, we've got to do something about it. that's what republicans have been proposing all along. we want to solve a problem once and for all. and that's why we haven't waited -- it's in
we do not want to go off the fiscal cliff. that's why we quickly responded to another proposal to the president. but the president refused to have a discussion. >> there's other reports that say republicans are looking for a fallback position, if he can't get the capps on deductions for more tax revenues and so forth. and it's going to be tax rates that the republicans might just vote present. some might vote present. some might vote aye and deal with the rates next year is. that just...
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that deadline isn't even the real fiscal cliff. david: that strategist is none other than peter schiff, ceo of europacific precious metals. friend of the show. peter, although i wish it was under better circumstances. you say the real cliff coming is bigger han the housing mess, bigger than the housing crisis we went through. it's the bond mess. specifically when the fed stops printing money to buy up treasurys all hell will break loose, right? >> well, and if it continues to print money it will be a bigger hell. if we avoid the fiscal cliff we end up throwing the dollar over the currency cliff because we send a message to the world america will never pay its bills. we'll keep borrowing money until the creditors cut us off. that is when interest rates skyrocket. the pressure on the fed and if the fed caves in to buy up all the bonds nobody wants we destroy the dollar. that is even bigger crisis than if we let the bond market collapse and let it take the economy with it. liz: let's not start so macro. we're throwing out this term th
that deadline isn't even the real fiscal cliff. david: that strategist is none other than peter schiff, ceo of europacific precious metals. friend of the show. peter, although i wish it was under better circumstances. you say the real cliff coming is bigger han the housing mess, bigger than the housing crisis we went through. it's the bond mess. specifically when the fed stops printing money to buy up treasurys all hell will break loose, right? >> well, and if it continues to print money...
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tell me where you stand on fiscal cliff. what's going to happen here, congresswoman? >> well, i am hoping because i'm the kind of person that always worked across the aisle. in fact on my foreign-ones committee, kay granger and i have been called the odd couple, we work well together. i've spoken to hal rodgers, chairman of the appropriations committee, i'm optimist being that we can sit at the table and get these things done. comprehensive tax reform is going to take longer, but we can make sure that the middle class keeps its tax cuts. we can make sure we target some waste. you can have across-the-board cuts. we have to have a very clear plan to cut back on certain areas. we can't cut back on programs that benefit the working and the middle class. we have to make sure our kids are educated. we have to make sure they have health care. but there are places in the bill that we can cut, and we don't want to do it with a sledge hammer. we're wise enough to be able to use a scalpel. so, again, i hope that we can sit together, work something out and do it soon. frankly, th
tell me where you stand on fiscal cliff. what's going to happen here, congresswoman? >> well, i am hoping because i'm the kind of person that always worked across the aisle. in fact on my foreign-ones committee, kay granger and i have been called the odd couple, we work well together. i've spoken to hal rodgers, chairman of the appropriations committee, i'm optimist being that we can sit at the table and get these things done. comprehensive tax reform is going to take longer, but we can...
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the fiscal cliff. two former governors will offer their perspective. plus, more on what bank of america's brian moynihan told becky this morning. more "squawk on the street" in just a moment. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. you can stay in and share something... ♪ ♪ ...or you can get out there with your friends and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection. offering some of our best values of the year. i have obligations. cute tobligations, but obligations.g. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your
the fiscal cliff. two former governors will offer their perspective. plus, more on what bank of america's brian moynihan told becky this morning. more "squawk on the street" in just a moment. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your...
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and i'm talking about the fiscal cliff now. i wonder if you were at 25% of gdp, if the government had grown to this size where it is right now and you were trying to figure out how to deal with it and you were in charge, would it be all about -- would the first thing you come up with be raising taxes? would not -- wouldn't you address the spending -- wouldn't you address the spending side of -- >> right. >> -- and, you know, the republicans are trying to criticize the obama proposals by saying you're not cutting spending, you're not coming to us on entitlements, but it's falling flat. no one's really listening and the white house has controlled the debate that it's all about the upper 2%. the first thing in texas you do is shrink the size of government, wouldn't you? >> well, we did that. we faced a substantial budget shortfall. we have a constitutional amendment that requires us to have a balanced budget, which frankly america needs that. >> i don't know what would happen. >> most states have that. >> the states that are -- i
and i'm talking about the fiscal cliff now. i wonder if you were at 25% of gdp, if the government had grown to this size where it is right now and you were trying to figure out how to deal with it and you were in charge, would it be all about -- would the first thing you come up with be raising taxes? would not -- wouldn't you address the spending -- wouldn't you address the spending side of -- >> right. >> -- and, you know, the republicans are trying to criticize the obama...
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>> the major impact is looking at the fiscal cliff. any compromise close to that is going to give the market some upward swing. the gop is under extreme pressure since president obama is definitely going to be seeing a wealthy tax added to it. on the economic news, little light tomorrow with initial claims at about 390,000, but the big story is really friday as we look to the jobs report. we believe that the effect of the payroll will be at 50,000 range due to the effect of hurricane sandy which could put our unemployment up to an 8% rate. >> all right. we'll be watching that. thanks very much to you both. we appreciate it. of course we'll be looking at this market and whether or not it loses the steam come the big rally today. ticktock, ticktock on the fiscal cliff. my thoughts on the story from timothy geithner. guess what, folks. i think we're going over the cliff. back in a moment. are system spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where
>> the major impact is looking at the fiscal cliff. any compromise close to that is going to give the market some upward swing. the gop is under extreme pressure since president obama is definitely going to be seeing a wealthy tax added to it. on the economic news, little light tomorrow with initial claims at about 390,000, but the big story is really friday as we look to the jobs report. we believe that the effect of the payroll will be at 50,000 range due to the effect of hurricane...
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we are always talking about fiscal cliff but what about housing? is everything in your portfolio still depend on a recovery or is having an overall market driver lost its punch? liz and saunders, chief investment strategist at charles schwab and which sidles through and why she thinks the recovery is just beginning. this company depends on you making trades for your portfolio and so far you the retail investor are still on the sidelines. td ameritrade joe moakley weighs in on that, on whether the age of the supersized bank is over and the massive life change he made off of the sidelines and into a real football game. let's get to the floor show. we have freighters at the stock exchange, cme group and nynex. give me your thoughts. we go through grinding higher as far as the broader markets are concerned except for the russell which is looking weaker right now. just turned positive. we are all green for the major indices. does this continue through tomorrow? >> hard to tell. if you look at the way the markets have traded on an intraday basis we have
we are always talking about fiscal cliff but what about housing? is everything in your portfolio still depend on a recovery or is having an overall market driver lost its punch? liz and saunders, chief investment strategist at charles schwab and which sidles through and why she thinks the recovery is just beginning. this company depends on you making trades for your portfolio and so far you the retail investor are still on the sidelines. td ameritrade joe moakley weighs in on that, on whether...
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a lot of projects on hold, though, fiscal cliff. yep, the obstacle is washington, all because of the need to sock it to the 2%, not the 1.5% and the over $400,000 crowd, the 1%, or the need to fulfill the anti-tax pledge of allegiance many of our congressmen made to my college chum grover norquist. i thought bill gates and chief justice roberts were powerful. he makes the other guys look like crash dummies. we're on the cusp of an economic boom in this country. but we have politicians that would rather create a recession, a mandated economic collapse, let's create a bear market versus rising above. and guess what? these enemies of wealth and job creation may get their way and win. yes, to borrow a phrase from my own rant last time we were on the brink of a washington-inspired financial disaster, they know nothing. shawn in illinois. shawn? >> caller: hello, jim. >> what's up, chief? >> caller: booyah from chicago land. >> done. speak to me. >> caller: i've been watching blizzard for some time now, and i just heard a report that thei
a lot of projects on hold, though, fiscal cliff. yep, the obstacle is washington, all because of the need to sock it to the 2%, not the 1.5% and the over $400,000 crowd, the 1%, or the need to fulfill the anti-tax pledge of allegiance many of our congressmen made to my college chum grover norquist. i thought bill gates and chief justice roberts were powerful. he makes the other guys look like crash dummies. we're on the cusp of an economic boom in this country. but we have politicians that...
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what impact is the fiscal cliff having? >> it's impacting the level of activity in the final quarter of 2012. we are seeing acceleration. if we look at volume and values of deals in october and november, we popped up 10%, 15% above the average after the previous nine months. so i think if you were contemplating the deal between september of this year and march of next, the likelihood is you'll try to pull it forward to try to take advantage of the capital gains tax certainlily. >> so if you're rushing through this year, there will be a lull in the first quarter. >> yeah. i agree. i think we will potentially see a lull in the first quarter. but on the assumption that we do get past the fiscal cliff with successful resolution, which i think we're all optimistic we will, i think fundamentals are strong. we have corporate balance sheets still strong. we have private equity with a lot of available cash. and general improvement in confidence. and i think with the certainty of -- the uncertainty of the presidential election behind
what impact is the fiscal cliff having? >> it's impacting the level of activity in the final quarter of 2012. we are seeing acceleration. if we look at volume and values of deals in october and november, we popped up 10%, 15% above the average after the previous nine months. so i think if you were contemplating the deal between september of this year and march of next, the likelihood is you'll try to pull it forward to try to take advantage of the capital gains tax certainlily. >>...
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. >> fiscal cliff. >> fiscal cliff. >> fiscal cliff. >> fiscal cliff. >> but why doesn't the market care? let's find out right now. >>> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. solving the apple mystery. want to know what's behind apple's troubles this week? we here at "fast" have gotten to the bottom of the selloff. we'll tell you what it means. plus, freeport fizzles. the fine print on why the company's two big buys are raising big red flags. >>> and nat gas revolution, the government says exporting nat gas could be a game changer for america's economy, but at what cost? we'll take a deeper dive to find some answers. but first, our top story tonight. >>> everyone cares about the fiscal cliff, except, seemingly, the markets. just 25 days until the year end deadline and still no deal out of washington. still stocks quietly climb higher. the dow closing today at a one-month high. what gives? just an assumption that a deal -- >> it almost gets back to that you never short. we're all waiting for some type of closu
. >> fiscal cliff. >> fiscal cliff. >> fiscal cliff. >> fiscal cliff. >> but why doesn't the market care? let's find out right now. >>> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. solving the apple mystery. want to know what's behind apple's troubles this week? we here at "fast" have gotten to the bottom of the selloff. we'll tell you what it means. plus, freeport fizzles....
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we've got this negotiation for the fiscal cliff. if we go over the fiscal cliff, what is the impact to your business? >> well, there would be an impact on consumption, for sure. so when it comes to puma or mainstream brands in america in sports, there will be a for sure some consequences in terms of consumption. but i see that as an investment for the future. so it might be a little bit different from some of other ceos. we have to get over the fiscal cliff. let's not delay the thing. it needs efforts. let's make them short for a better future. i think we should be ready as a corporation, being ready for maybe a year of difficult market, difficult situation in the market because that is a ceiling on our growth in terms of economical growth as to be released. it's really me an investment for the future. >> you're seeing a similar situation in france where we're talking about the possibility of capital gains taxes and dividend taxes going much higher. what will that do to the investor class, to the entrepreneurialism that we're seeing
we've got this negotiation for the fiscal cliff. if we go over the fiscal cliff, what is the impact to your business? >> well, there would be an impact on consumption, for sure. so when it comes to puma or mainstream brands in america in sports, there will be a for sure some consequences in terms of consumption. but i see that as an investment for the future. so it might be a little bit different from some of other ceos. we have to get over the fiscal cliff. let's not delay the thing. it...
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>> on the fiscal cliff or the debt ceiling? >> on the debt ceiling. >> i was very interested by your reporting. that you took a really strong position there. i do think the white house has been transformed. both by the experience with the debt ceiling and with the election. i think if they want to stand their ground, i think they can actually do it. i think that that is, in fact, possible. can they? you know, we'll see. they seem a lot tougher now than they were last time around. don't you think? >> they sound very tough now. chrystia freeland of thomson, and author of "the plutocrats." >>> i promised you, red lobster, olive garden, timely for both, and i will deliver. that is ahead. [ male announcer ] take dayquil... [ ding! ] ...and spend time on the slopes. take alka-seltzer plus cold & cough... [ buzz! ] ...and spend time on the chair. for non-drowsy 6-symptom cold & flu relief. take dayquil. use nyquil d... [ ding! ] ...and get longer nighttime cough relief. use alka-seltzer plus night cold & flu... [ coughs ] [ buzz! ] [
>> on the fiscal cliff or the debt ceiling? >> on the debt ceiling. >> i was very interested by your reporting. that you took a really strong position there. i do think the white house has been transformed. both by the experience with the debt ceiling and with the election. i think if they want to stand their ground, i think they can actually do it. i think that that is, in fact, possible. can they? you know, we'll see. they seem a lot tougher now than they were last time...
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i think that the ramifications of the fiscal cliff, um, will be important. i'm optimistic that we're going to get some leadership in washington that'll actually save us from having to go off that cliff or down that hill, if you will. but i think we are -- there's uncertainty. and whenever there's uncertainty, the market will have less volume in it. liz: tom kloet, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. liz: ceo of the tmx group. david: a u.s. plant right in the heart of canada. they don't realize it yet. [laughter] good to see you. >> thank you. david: well, is now the time to buy apple? a morningstar senior equity analyst thinks so and says some of the blame for the recent decline should fall on washington. why? find out why, coming next. liz: plus, choice hotels expanding its upscale brand right here in america. they must believe that there's a real market here. find out why they're starting three brand new upscale ones at least here in new york. steve joyce, choice hotels ceo and president, joining us after the break. ♪ music is a universal language.
i think that the ramifications of the fiscal cliff, um, will be important. i'm optimistic that we're going to get some leadership in washington that'll actually save us from having to go off that cliff or down that hill, if you will. but i think we are -- there's uncertainty. and whenever there's uncertainty, the market will have less volume in it. liz: tom kloet, good to see you. >> thanks for having me. liz: ceo of the tmx group. david: a u.s. plant right in the heart of canada. they...
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and one of our viewers has a question for you about the fiscal cliff. you know all about the back and forth and drama about the fiscal cliff and delores wants your thoughts on where do you stand on this whole fiscal cliff, how will it play out. >> congress better get off its duff and do something. and i think that finally the pressure will be on us. but they always do it right to the last, you know, minute. but i think it's got to happen or they're going to be ousted from their hallowed political seats. >> tom: you could argue in the three years you've been away from the nbr anchor desk congress hasn't done a lot to address the fiscal situation. >> no it's just ridiculous. i mean these are our elected representatives and they have got to pay a little more attention to those that got them in the office. and they're arguing amongst themselves without much care about the people they represent. >> tom: a lot of those folks are retiree, we have a question from anita asking what is the investing or financial planning lesson paul use most during retirement? >>
and one of our viewers has a question for you about the fiscal cliff. you know all about the back and forth and drama about the fiscal cliff and delores wants your thoughts on where do you stand on this whole fiscal cliff, how will it play out. >> congress better get off its duff and do something. and i think that finally the pressure will be on us. but they always do it right to the last, you know, minute. but i think it's got to happen or they're going to be ousted from their hallowed...
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will america fall over the fiscal cliff? grover norquist, possible public enemy number one to the public, takes on robert reish after the break. let's say you want to get ahead in your career. how do you get from here... to here? at university of phoenix we're moving career planning forward so you can start figuring that out sooner. ln fact, by thinking about where want your education to lead, while you're still in school, you might find the best route... leads somewhere you weren't even looking. let's get to work. bp has paid overthe people of bp twenty-threeitment to the gulf. billion dollars to help those affected and to cover cleanup costs. today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america. we support nearly 250,000 jobs and invest more here than anywhere else. we're working to fuel america for generations to come. our commitment has never been stronger. i just finished a bowl of your new light chicken pot pie soup and it's so rich a
will america fall over the fiscal cliff? grover norquist, possible public enemy number one to the public, takes on robert reish after the break. let's say you want to get ahead in your career. how do you get from here... to here? at university of phoenix we're moving career planning forward so you can start figuring that out sooner. ln fact, by thinking about where want your education to lead, while you're still in school, you might find the best route... leads somewhere you weren't even...
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>> i actually think we are going to get a resolution to the fiscal cliff. i think it is going to come after we go over. >> we could maybe see the beginnings of the contour of an eventual agreement. i don't see how it comes before december 31. >> it doesn't sound like the sides are closer. >> it is not a plan to say we are going to magically reduce our increased revenue through loop hole closures and deduction caps. we don't know who pays or what we are talking about in terms of actual legislation to increase revenue. >> and the market is responding. maybe it is best to forget it and focus on stock picking. >> two-week low this morning and then huge 2.36 million block share trades come in. >> "fast money" right now. >>> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. first china conundrum. is the chinese recovery in recovery mode? a top strategist is digging through the data. hedgefund head winds are supposed to be some of the smartest on the street but 2012 has not been kind. find out if december will bring rebound or redem
>> i actually think we are going to get a resolution to the fiscal cliff. i think it is going to come after we go over. >> we could maybe see the beginnings of the contour of an eventual agreement. i don't see how it comes before december 31. >> it doesn't sound like the sides are closer. >> it is not a plan to say we are going to magically reduce our increased revenue through loop hole closures and deduction caps. we don't know who pays or what we are talking about in...
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businesses are looking ahead, and they're thinking with increased taxes, because of the fiscal cliff, if the worst happens, consumer demand is just going to fall off. they are already ting action today to try to prepare for that eventuality. but the consumer is kind of blankly ignoring this, and confidence is up for really lots of reasons. i mean, the net worth of households has been repaired. about two-thirds of it has come back as house prices rise and stock prices are now double what they were at the bottom in march of '09. when you look at state and local budgets, they're now much better with revenue rising. so theayof and budget cuts, we think are waning, if not over. housing is clearly coming back. things are improving and consumer confidence reflects that. >> tom: but there is that dark cloud of the fiscal cliff. you mentioned it earlier, businesses planning for consumer confidence to go off that cliff if we go off it as a country. do you not agree with that prospect? >> well, no. i believe it will -- if nothing happens and there is no agreement, i think there will be a mild, k
businesses are looking ahead, and they're thinking with increased taxes, because of the fiscal cliff, if the worst happens, consumer demand is just going to fall off. they are already ting action today to try to prepare for that eventuality. but the consumer is kind of blankly ignoring this, and confidence is up for really lots of reasons. i mean, the net worth of households has been repaired. about two-thirds of it has come back as house prices rise and stock prices are now double what they...
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my next guest says the fiscal cliff is simply y2k fear. joining me now is a chief investment officer. we have had other people talk about it similar to y2k. why do you feel that it is not something to worry about right now, from an investor standpoint. >> first, i think the deal is already settled in was settled a while back. everyone who has negotiated knows that is what goes on. from an investor point of view, i think you will find that the tax rates don't go crazy like everyone thinks. the dividend taxes, for example, you will have 23.5%. all of these captains of industries, what happens when it turned and looked around and say it really was not such a big thing. what will they do? will they go away from dividends and not have anything that has interest. liz: even with a potentially higher tax rate, you are still getting more than 1.6% or 1.7%. >> exactly. look at how many times in history we have had higher dividend taxes. the rate will hit around 20%. it could go as high as 36 or 39%. with that said, 200 companies, roughly, are accele
my next guest says the fiscal cliff is simply y2k fear. joining me now is a chief investment officer. we have had other people talk about it similar to y2k. why do you feel that it is not something to worry about right now, from an investor standpoint. >> first, i think the deal is already settled in was settled a while back. everyone who has negotiated knows that is what goes on. from an investor point of view, i think you will find that the tax rates don't go crazy like everyone thinks....
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does it mean we're any closer to the solution to the fiscal cliff? >>> a news conference by chairman ben bernanke, set for wednesday.
does it mean we're any closer to the solution to the fiscal cliff? >>> a news conference by chairman ben bernanke, set for wednesday.